Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US air base in Jordan on Tuesday while American forces attacked Iranian targets for five consecutive hours, the latest exchange in a widening battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz that has pushed oil prices to their highest level in four weeks.
US forces have now launched waves of attacks for the third successive night, following Iran's declaration on Saturday that it was closing the strait. In response, President Donald Trump reinstated a blockade of Iranian shipping and proposed charging a 20 per cent fee to all vessels using the vital waterway. The escalation has deepened doubts that a memorandum of understanding signed last month will lead to a permanent end to the conflict, which has disrupted global energy supplies and raised fears of rising inflation across the world.
Strikes on Jordan and Iran Raise Alarm
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed it had targeted a US air base in Jordan with ballistic missiles. Jordan's armed forces said they shot down four missiles that entered Jordanian airspace, according to a state news agency report. The scale of the attack was described as smaller than the heaviest barrages Jordan faced during the height of the conflict, when the kingdom came under a much heavier combination of missiles and drones.
Iranian media reported US strikes on a number of cities, with four people said to have been wounded. Several explosions were heard in Bushehr and Choghadak, according to Fars News Agency, while a provincial official quoted by IRNA said four areas of Bushehr city were struck directly.
The United Arab Emirates Ministry of Defence said Iranian missiles struck two Emirati oil tankers while they were transiting the strait. One Indian crew member was killed and eight others were wounded, the ministry confirmed on Tuesday. The IRGC said two supertankers had been hit and disabled after ignoring warnings and turning off their navigation systems.
Analysts Warn of Risk Despite Controlled Boundaries
Regional analysts said the hostilities had so far remained within broadly controlled limits, with both sides seeking leverage ahead of an eventual peace settlement. However, the risk of the fighting spinning out of control has not been dismissed.
Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, offered a measured but cautious assessment of where matters stand.
"I doubt the two sides will resume a full war, especially as Trump will suffer, though there is also a distinct possibility that the Iranians will overplay their hand. That is true of Trump too, of course."
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King's College London, framed the current phase of the conflict in similarly cautious terms.
"We have returned to the boundaries of escalation prior to signing the MoU, a low-intensity conflict that will not produce any clear victory for anyone."
Trump Reinstates Blockade and Proposes 20 Per Cent Fee
Trump announced on Monday that the United States was reinstating its blockade of Iranian shipping, a measure that had been lifted as part of last month's memorandum of understanding. He also proposed a 20 per cent fee on all cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center confirmed the blockade would take effect at 2000 GMT on Tuesday.
Iran has simultaneously sought to establish its own control over the waterway and introduce a parallel fee collection system, warning vessels not to sail without Tehran's authorisation.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi responded to Trump's proposed fee directly, writing on X that Tehran was the guardian of the strait and would remain so permanently.
"20% is of course too much. We will be fair."
Before the conflict began, approximately a fifth of global oil and gas traffic passed through Hormuz each day, delivering over 15 million barrels of fuel to international markets worth at least $1.2 billion daily. A 20 per cent fee, if enforced, could generate around $240 million a day for whichever power controls the waterway.
The United Nations shipping agency said it opposed any fees for straits used in international navigation and stated there was no legal basis for introducing mandatory tolls on strait transits.
Oil Markets React as Economic Pressure Mounts
Brent crude futures rose 5 per cent on Tuesday to hit $87.49 per barrel, the highest price recorded since 12 June, though still well below the peak reached since the war began. The price movement reflects the anxiety gripping energy markets over the reliability of supply through one of the world's most critical shipping corridors.
The war has proved deeply unpopular within the United States, where petrol prices have risen steadily since hostilities began and congressional elections are approaching in November. That domestic political pressure adds another layer of complexity to the calculations being made in Washington as the conflict enters another volatile phase.
The wider regional picture remains grave. The original US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February triggered Iranian attacks on Israel and Gulf states hosting US bases. The conflict reignited fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing thousands and displacing millions, with the vast majority of casualties in Iran and Lebanon.
Lebanon and Israel resumed talks on Tuesday in Rome, with Beirut seeking progress toward securing an Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon under a US-brokered arrangement.